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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Focusing on the Bank of England resolution, Powell stated "high inflation" to limit the increase in gold prices, and Trump may have approved a plan to attack Iran." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (June 19, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,372.90/ounce, gold prices fell on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and suggested that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow down in the future. Chairman Powell said that the Fed expects "quite high inflation" in the next few months, and U.S. crude oil trading was around $73.42/barrel, investors weighed the possibility of Iran-Israeli conflict and the possibility of direct involvement in causing supply disruptions.
Key points to focus on: Bank of England interest rate resolution, Swiss National Bank interest rate resolution, and Australian unemployment rate.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected. In the statement, policymakers maintained expectations of two rate cuts this year, but more and more people are not expected to cut rates. In addition, they have slowed down slightly, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in 2026 and 2027.
The stock market rose moderately before Powell's speech. U.S. Treasury yields also shrank most of the earlier declines as he spoke.
Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, said: "He made it clear that before they determined the impact of tariffs on inflation, heThere will be no change in monetary policy. "Therefore, yields will rise, and the impact of tariffs will take time to manifest," he said. "
Investors are also paying close attention to the development of the situation in the Middle East. Some fear that the United States may intervene more directly in the air war between Israel and Iran.
Iranian supreme leader Khamenei rejected Trump's request for unconditional surrender. Trump said his patience was exhausted, but he did not indicate what measures would be taken next.
The energy sector led the S&P 500 sectors, with the most www.wzhdjgj.comrmation technology gains Big. Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.10% to 42,171.66 points; S&P 500 fell 0.03% to 5980.87 points; Nasdaq rose 0.13% to 19,546.27 points.
The number of first-time unemployment benefits released earlier in the day showed that the number of new Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell last week, but the labor market continued to lose further movement in June
Gold prices fell on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and suggested a slowdown in the future rate cuts, and Chairman Powell said the Fed expects “quite high inflation” in the www.wzhdjgj.coming months.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,374.75 per ounce. U.S. gold futures settlement price rose 0.03% to $3,408.1.
Spot gold rose briefly during the session, after the Fed maintained its target range of indicator rates at its current 4.25%-4.50%, and said it would cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the rest of the year.
However, independent metals trader TaiWong said, "Powell repeatedly reiterated that the Fed is currently in a good position to remain on the wait-and-see state given the low and stable unemployment rate, which weakened initial optimism. He hinted that interest rate cuts may be possible at the September meeting, but that is not enough for asset and gold markets, as they had originally hoped that the Fed would take a more dovish tendency. Gold needs to return to $3,400 for the longs to dominate. ”
While policymakers still expect a 50 basis point cut this year, they believe the pace of rate cuts will slow slightly in the future, with 25 basis points expected in 2026 and 2027 respectively. Powell also said the forecast could be adjusted based on upcoming data, especially inflation data.
Meanwhile, Trump said on Wednesday that he may meet with Iran to discuss the conflict in Iran. Geopolitical tensions and low interest rates Rates boosted the attractiveness of gold.
Spot silver fell 1.5% to $36.70 per ounce, while platinum rose 4.3% to $1,319.03 per ounce, and had risen 5% intraday, reaching its highest level since February 2021. Palladium fell 0.5% to $1,046.75 per ounce.
Goldman Sachs said in a report that the recent rise in platinum and silver was mainly speculative and lacked fundamental support.
Oil prices closed higher in a volatile period on Wednesday as investors weighed the possibility of a direct involvement in the U.S. causing supply disruptions.
Brent crude oil futures closed up 25 cents to $76.70 a barrel. U.S. crude oil rose 30 cents to $75.14. Earlier this trading day, crude oil prices fell about 2%. On Tuesday, prices jumped more than 4%. Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s request for unconditional surrender, saying his patience has been exhausted but has not indicated what measures will be taken next.
Trump said outside the White House that he refused to say whether he had made any decisions about joining Israel in bombing against his old rival Iran, "I might do that. I probably won't do that. I mean, no one knows what I would do."
Trump said Iranian officials had contacted on the negotiations, including possible meetings at the White House, but "it's too late to talk." "The crude oil market is still on the wait-and-see state, and the Israeli conflict with Iran will still bring a series of question marks that may cause Brent crude oil to soar to a high of $83 per barrel and may also prompt crude oil prices to fall back to the region around $68," said analysts at energy consulting firm Ritterbuschand Associates in a report. "Iran is the third largest producer of OPEC, mining about 3.3 million barrels of crude oil a day.
The Fed kept interest rates stable on Wednesday, with policymakers saying borrowing costs still likely to fall this year, but slowing down the overall expectation of future rate cuts as the Trump administration’s tariff plan is expected to lead to higher inflation.
The U.S. Energy www.wzhdjgj.comrmation Administration said on Wednesday that crude oil inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels to 420.9 million barrels last week. Analysts had expected a 1.8 million barrel reduction.
The dollar rose against most major currencies on Wednesday after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but remained weaker against the yen as economic uncertainty and tariff issues continue to cast a shadow on the dollar outlook. Policymakers still predict a 50 basis point cut this year, but slowed down the pace of future rate cuts, fearing President Trump's tariffs would stimulate inflation.
Juan Perez, head of trading at Monex, USA, said, "Photographs in the market are still pending. The second quarter data will be key and it will make us truly realize that we are facing actual recession pressures that will force the Fed to reconsider its policies, and the signals they receive are mixed, so the signals they send are also mixed."
The Fed's decision is a thing of the past, and the market is still focusing on the battle between Israel and Iran, which has stimulated investors to seize the safe haven.
Israel has bombed its old enemy Iran in the past six days to stop its nuclear activities and claims the Islamic Republic needs to be replacedgovernment.
The U.S. military is also strengthening its presence in the region, which has sparked speculation about U.S. intervention, with investors worried that U.S. intervention will expand conflict in this region with important energy resources, supply chains and infrastructure.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei rejected Trump's request for unconditional surrender on Wednesday, and the U.S. president said his patience was exhausted but did not reveal clues to his next move. The dollar has become a safe haven again, with exchange rates up about 1% against the yen and Swiss francs since last Thursday.
The dollar's exchange rate against a basket of six other major currencies is still down about 8% this year, as confidence in the U.S. economy and the reliability of the Trump administration as a trade and diplomatic partner are weakened. The U.S. market was closed on Thursday due to federal holidays.
The US dollar narrowed its decline against the Japanese yen, down 0.06% at 145.18 in the late trading; the US dollar rose 0.36% to 0.8190 francs.
Earlier in the day, the dollar remained in a weaker range after data showed that the number of new Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell but remained high.
At the same time, the Swedish central bank cut interest rates as scheduled, causing the Swedish krona to fall against the euro, with the euro rising 1% to 11.0770 kroner.
On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England and the Norwegian Bank will announce their respective interest rate decisions.
The pound fell 0.12% to $1.3411 after it was boosted by data ahead of the Bank of England's resolution. The Office of National Statistics announced on Wednesday that the annual growth rate of consumer prices in May was 3.4%, in line with the forecast.
On June 18, local time, the Trump administration of the US resumed application of foreign student visas, but required access to the social media accounts of visa applicants.
On June 18, local time, US President Trump stated on the current conflict between Iran and Israel that the United States is not seeking a ceasefire, but what the United States is seeking is "complete victory", that is, "Iran has no nuclear weapons." In addition, Trump also said that "there is still a possibility of reaching an agreement." Earlier that day, Trump had made a series of remarks on the Iran issue. Trump said he has not yet decided whether to take military action against Iran. He also said that Iran wants to negotiate and has expressed his willingness to www.wzhdjgj.come to the White House.
Feder Chairman Powell said at a press conference that given the current inflation situation, monetary policy still needs to impose some restrictions on the economy. The current interest rate level is not very high. The current policy can be said to be moderate or moderately tightened, and may now prefer "moderately restrictive". He added: "If you look at the current economic performance, you will see that it is not performing like it's going through a very tight product.Monetary policy’. ”
The Fed's Muffler" Nick Timiraos issued a statement saying that the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged this time, leaving a possibility for interest rate cuts in the second half of this year. In order to resume the rate cuts that began last year, Fed officials may need to see a weaker labor market, or there is stronger evidence that the price increase caused by tariffs will be relatively moderate. The released forecast shows that officials are open to whether evidence can be obtained before the fall. The new interest rate forecast highlights the differences between 19 officials. Ten of them are expected to cut interest rates at least twice this year, a smaller proportion than in March, and two are expected to cut interest rates once. With this At the same time, the seven believe that there will be no changes this year, higher than the four in March.
On June 18 local time, Director of the Ukrainian Presidential Office Yermak announced on his official social platform that Ukraine is preparing for a public bid for the development of the Dobra lithium mine in Kilovogla Prefecture, which may become the first key project for cooperation with the United States. Yermak said that the results of the previous talks between Ukraine and the United States in Washington are being transformed into concrete actions, and the cooperation process is being carried out smoothly. Yermak also revealed that during the G7 Leaders' Summit held in Canada, he met with Ukraine's first deputy prime minister and minister of economy Yulia Sveridenko with Ukraine's finances Minister Besent has conducted in-depth consultations on the details of cooperation, and Ukraine and the United States will continue to advance related work. On May 12 local time, the Ukrainian President's website released a message saying that President Zelensky signed a law on approving the "Agreement for the Establishment of the U.S.-U.S. Renewed Investment Fund."
According to Al Jazeera, senior Iranian officials said that if the United States intervenes in the confrontation, Iran will have the option to attack maritime targets and enemy positions. Direct intervention of the United States means Hezbollah will take action. Any direct intervention of the United States on the front will pose an unprecedented threat to enemy ships.
Three people familiar with the matter said that U.S. President Trump had told his senior aides on the evening of June 17 that he had approved the attack plan against Iran but would not issue a final order to see whether Iran would give up its nuclear plan. According to people familiar with the matter, Trump hopes to force Iran to meet its demands through threats. People familiar with the matter also revealed that the Fordo nuclear facility, which Iran has heavily defended, may become a target of the United States - a nuclear facility hidden deep inside the mountain, and military experts generally believe that only the most powerful giant ground-boring bomb can destroy it.
Data from the U.S. Treasury Department showed that China held US Treasury bonds in April were US$757 billion, a decrease from US$765 billion in March; UK holdings were US$808 billion, an increase from US$779 billion in March; Japan held US$1.135 trillion, and US$1.131 trillion in March.
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