The dollar index fluctuates wide, Trump continues to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates this week

On June 30, early trading in the Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.25. Last Friday, the US dollar index fluctuated wide, but after Trump announced the end of trade negotiations with Canada, the US index plunged in the short term and turned to a decline, eventually closing down 0.05% to 97.25. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2850%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.7480%. As global trade negotiations make progress, U.S. consumer confidence has increased, and market enthusiasm for safe-haven assets has cooled down. Spot gold continued to fall on Friday, falling below the $3260 mark during the session, and finally closed down 1.62%, closing at $3274.46/ounce, the second consecutive week of closing down; spot silver finally closed down 1.81% at $35.97/ounce. Oil prices continued to fall on Friday due to reports that OPEC+ planned to increase production in August. WTI crude oil fell sharply during the US session and fell to around $64, eventually closing down 0.34% to $64.41 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 0.54% to $66.24 per barrel. Oil prices fell by about 12% last week, the biggest single-week drop since March 2023.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 97.25. The dollar index fell after the Fed's preferred inflation indicator core PCE rose in May. The dollar continued to weaken, with the U.S. dollar index approaching Thursday's low of 97.00 and Michigan expectations, providing more insights into how consumers feel about the current situation. Technically, ifThe dollar index fell below its recent support level of 96.70–96.90, and it will move to the next support level of 95.40–95.60.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1721. The euro rose sharply due to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the U.S. launched a massive attack on Iranian uranium facilities, with President Trump reporting via social media that they had “destroyed” nuclear programs. Market participants panic when Tehran retaliates with missiles to attack U.S. military bases in Qatar. Technically, if the EUR/USD closes above the 1.1750 level, it will move towards resistance at 1.1785–1.1800. RSI is in a mild area and there is enough room for additional upward momentum in the short term.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3716. Bank of England (BoE) President Andrew Bailey told the House of Lords Economic Affairs www.wzhdjgj.committee last Tuesday that they are beginning to observe weak labour markets. Additionally, Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said they could speed up rate cuts if there is stronger evidence that inflation will be below target. Although these www.wzhdjgj.comments failed to prompt market reactions immediately, they could lead to indecision in the mid-week. Technically, if GBP/USD fails to close above 1.3750, it will gain a downward momentum and move towards the support level of 1.3620–1.3640.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold trading around 3263.22. In the early trading of the Asian market on Monday, gold expanded to around $3,265. Precious metals fell to nearly a month low after the U.S.-China trade deal boosted risk appetite. Investors await the Fed's speech late Monday in search of new impetus.

Technical: Against the backdrop of falling below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) through a short-term upward channel last week, the intraday break below the simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart can be regarded as a new trigger for gold shorts. Given that the oscillator on the daily chart has just begun to gain negative traction, gold may accelerate to the $3245 area before eventually falling to the horizontal support level of $3210-3200 and the $3175 area. On the other hand, the $3324-3325 area now appears to be a direct obstacle before the overnight swing high, i.e. near the $3350 area. Next is the trend channel support breakpoint, near the $3368-3370 area, which should limit any further rise in gold prices. However, a continued strengthening beyond the latter could lead gold to recover the $3,400 mark. Some subsequent purchases will offset the negative outlook and turn bias into favoring the bulls.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading around 64. The crude oil market plummeted last week, with light crude oil futures plunging 11.27% to $65.52, the biggest single-week drop since demand plummeted in 2020. OPEC+ increased production, evaporated geopolitical risk premiums, and weakened demand in major consumer areas jointly promoted the sell-off, indicating a structural shift to oversupply in the crude oil market.

Technical: A break below 50MA$66.57 will open up a path for testing the next support level, which is in the range of $63.50-$64.00.

Forex market trading reminder on June 30, 2025

① To be determined ECB holds a central bank forum

②09:30 China's official manufacturing PMI in June

③14:00 UK's first quarter GDP annual rate final value

④14:00 UK's first quarter current account

⑤15:00 Switzerland's June KOF economic leading indicator

⑥16:30 UK's central bank mortgage loan license

⑦20:00 Germany The initial monthly value of the CPI rate in June

⑧21:45 US Chicago PMI in June

⑨22:00 US Federal Reserve Bostic delivered a speech

22:30 US Dallas Fed Business Activity Index in June

01:00 US Federal Reserve Goulsby delivered a speech

03:00 ECB President Lagarde delivered a speech

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